Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4016
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
OO 4016 · AUS → MSY
departs 1:26 PM CT · arrives 3:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.