Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4016
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 4016 · AUS → MSY
departs 1:26 PM CT · arrives 3:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sat 10/3 36%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.