Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 4689 · SFO → OTH
departs 10:10 AM PT · arrives 11:59 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 33%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at OTH more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OTH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at OTH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OTH?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at OTH that day
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
OTH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
OTH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.