Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4689
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 4689 · SFO → OTH
departs 10:10 AM PT · arrives 11:59 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at OTH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OTH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at OTH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OTH?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OTH
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
OTH (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,067 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.