Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
OO 5046 · JST → IAD
departs 6:40 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave JST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
6am departures from JST are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
JST (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.08 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.