Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
OO 5046 · JST → IAD
departs 6:40 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave JST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Other factors
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
JST (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.