Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5046
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
OO 5046 · JST → IAD
departs 6:40 AM ET · arrives 7:35 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5
Wed 10/7 15%
Thu 10/8 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave JST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
JST is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
JST (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.