tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Yesterday

UA 1415 · DEN → SMF

departs 11:30 AM MT · arrives 1:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
16% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 3.6d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SMF?

  1. On time or early
    84%
  2. 15–30 min late
    7%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    3%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    4%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.