Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1415SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
UA 1415 · DEN → SMF
departs 11:30 AM MT · arrives 1:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
9%chance · ±2 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.