Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 1469 · IAH → CHS

departs 6:37 PM CT · arrives 10:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±1 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CHS?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS

↓ CHS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

CHS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1469 · IAH → CHS

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHS?