Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1511 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 1511 · EWR → MIA

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 4:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.04 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1511 · EWR → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?