Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Friday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1829 LANDED 10:44 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 1829 · IAH → MIA

took off 7:43 PM CT · landed 10:44 PM ET (scheduled 7:01 PM CT → 10:40 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1829 · IAH → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?