Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 283 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

UA 283 · MSP → IAH

departs 5:42 PM CT · arrives 8:37 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 283 · MSP → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?