Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2864 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

UA 2864 · IAH → CLT

departs 6:12 PM CT · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2864 · IAH → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?