Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 654 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Yesterday

UA 654 · IAH → DCA

departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 4:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.47 in

DCA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 654 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?