Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 654 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 654 · IAH → DCA

departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 4:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.21 in

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 654 · IAH → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?