Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 1004 · BWI → MHT
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 19%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHT
↓
MHT usually runs smoothly
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
MHT (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.