Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1004 · BWI → MHT
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MHT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.