Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 1004 · BWI → MHT
departs 2:55 PM ET · arrives 4:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MHT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MHT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MHT?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MHT
↓
MHT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.35 in
MHT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.