Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1453
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 1453 · DCA → MSY
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 35%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.