Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1464 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Tomorrow

WN 1464 · DCA → TPA

departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 3:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 52% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1464 · DCA → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?