Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 1464 · DCA → TPA
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,233 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.