Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 1464 · DCA → TPA
departs 12:35 PM ET · arrives 3:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 44% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.