Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2593
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2593 · DCA → AUS
departs 5:25 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 41%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 64% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 61% of the time recently
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.