Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3014 · DAL → DCA
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 8:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 49%
Mon 10/5 27%
Fri 10/9 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
74%
chance · ±1 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
74%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
38%
Cancelled
16%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 68% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
74%
Yes 74%
No 26%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
25%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.