Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3551 · SAN → SMF
departs 9:00 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 28%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
62%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
62%
Leave 15+ late
71%
Arrive 1h+ late
29%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
26%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.