Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3551 · SAN → SMF
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 10:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 50% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.