Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3551 · SAN → SMF
departs 9:05 PM PT · arrives 10:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 49%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.