Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 3709 · TPA → PVD
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 39%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±1 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
PVD usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.