Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4194
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4194 · MDW → CLT
departs 6:55 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.