Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4194
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4194 · MDW → CLT
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
CLT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.