Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4468
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4468 · TPA → HOU
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.58 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.61 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.