Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4468
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4468 · TPA → HOU
departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 2:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5 17%
Thu 10/8 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.