Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4468
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4468 · TPA → HOU
departs 2:40 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Thu 10/8 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.