Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 449 · JAX → STL
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 6:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.38 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.