Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 449 · JAX → STL
departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 7:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.45 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.