Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 449 · JAX → STL
departs 7:55 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.