Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 451 · BNA → AUS
departs 2:30 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 38%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.