Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 451 · BNA → AUS
departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 4:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 55%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.25 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.