Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 451 · BNA → AUS
departs 1:55 PM CT · arrives 4:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at BNA that day
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.