Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4522
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4522 · BNA → CVG
departs 8:45 PM CT · arrives 11:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 21%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,633 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.65 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.