Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4522
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4522 · BNA → CVG
departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 11:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.25 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.