Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4522
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4522 · BNA → CVG
departs 9:55 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.