Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4613 · SJU → MCO
departs 6:30 PM AT · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at SJU that day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.