Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4709 · MCO → RSW
departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 54%
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −19 pts in 24h
−19 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.