Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4737
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4737 · BWI → MIA
departs 11:45 AM ET · arrives 2:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
11am departures from BWI are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.