Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4737
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4737 · BWI → MIA
departs 11:40 AM ET · arrives 2:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
11am departures from BWI are usually not late
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.