Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4881
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4881 · AUS → ABQ
departs 2:50 PM CT · arrives 3:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
2pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at ABQ that day
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.99 in
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.