Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4895
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4895 · LGA → STL
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4 58%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
−21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −26 pts in 24h
−26 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.