Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4895
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4895 · LGA → STL
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 64%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 56%
Mon 10/5 27%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.